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Regarding the trading methodology discussed today, it originates with the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) based school of trading systems. It’s designed in particular for part-time traders who have no time or inclination to monitor the markets in real-time and closely watch charts and price quotes all day.
Most all futures, forex and stock market trading systems are trend following in one way or the other. However, the trend length may be long or short-term. My intention here is to locate commodities and stock market trading system’s to catch the longer swings, and filter out as many go nowhere whip-saws as possible, plus it can be easily monitored without the use of a computer and with a minimum of time spent studying quotes and charts.
The believed to be greatest trader of all-time Mr. William D. Gann (better known as W. D. Gann) inspired the use of swing charts as a filter for indicating trending market moves. Gann successfully used a combination of various time-frames, the most well known being 3-days, 7-days, and his quarterly swing-charts. Gann taught the now well-known traders adage about that longer time frames are the more reliable and powerful when a buy or sell signal was given.
My own analysis uses a 14-day trend reversal. How do you plot it? Simply mark on chart paper a vertical line when today’s price is higher than it was 14-days ago and keep drawing on up until today’s price is below that 14 days ago when you show the line coming down again. What could be simpler?
How then is a swing chart used? First, it gives a broad indication the market trend could continue in the direction of the current swing. Support and resistance levels are clearly shown and once the swing passes prior swing highs or goes under previous swing-lows, greater weight is given, W. D. Gann said new highs should be bought and new lows sold.
However, as with all long term trend following systems – first pick a market with prolonged trending actions. The foreign currency markets are personal favorite markets to trade – frequently embarking on long term trends with a minimum of whipsaw and sideways market price action.
Using a swing-chart to place my trades, the swing commodity trading system is always in the market. Over 3-years in a bull market and prior to a major bear run, the system has produced 48 trades, with a most impressive 2:1 win loose ratio. This producing a profit of $18,400 per futures contract. However the maximum drawdown was high at 19 cents – more than most traders could stomach.
By adding a simple rule of setting a maximum stop-loss of 2 cents, the maximum drawdown became 8 cents with profitability boosted to 49.5 cents or $30,937.5 per contract. After deducting $100 for slippage and commission per trade, this easy to monitor trade system shows how a simple technique can produce impressive profits.
Gann’s forecasts of price movements and his ability to multiply money was mind-boggling, not only for traders of that era but by any standard of today. For example, he would predict a stock (or commodity) trading at 145 would go to 164-7/8 but not to 165, and it would do exactly that.
William Delbert Gann – known world-wide as W D Gann, is a trading legend in the world of Stock & Commodity trading. Born June 6, 1878 in Lufkin, Texas. W.D. Gann started in commodity and stock-market trading in the year 1902. By 1908 Gann moved to New York City opening his own brokerage firm, W. D. Gann & Co., located at 18th & Broadway. After many decades of incredible trading success, Gann moved to Miami, Florida where he continued his writings and studies up until Mr. Gann’s death on June 14 1955.
Mr. Gann, in the presence of representatives of a financial publication (the Wall Street Journal was later derived from it) Gann made 286 trades in 25-market days, on both the long side and short side of the market. Of these 286 trades, and amazing 264 were profitable, which was an incredible 92% profitable transactions!
W.D. Gann’s trading profits are estimated as high as $50,000,000 USD. That's fa more than you can imagine once you realize Gann traded in the first half of the last century so with inflation it's a ton of money! You can click-here to
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